Evidentiary rigor

How we show our work

This page states the standards the system is held to. It is written for buyers and reviewers who need to check the method, not the pitch.

Every prediction ships with its evidence trail

A prediction is not delivered as a number. It is delivered with the signals that produced it, the sources behind each signal, the date each was observed, and the agent that surfaced it. Any row in the ledger can be expanded to its underlying documents.

Confidence is never asserted without a source

Confidence is a function of source independence, source track record, signal recency, and the strength of the inference from situation to need. If a claim has no source, it does not receive a score and does not appear in results.

Disagreement is shown, not hidden

When sources conflict, a filing says 150 rooms and a press report says 90, both are kept, the conflict is flagged, and confidence is reduced accordingly. We do not average conflicting evidence into a single tidy figure.

Repetition is not corroboration

Evidence is clustered by underlying source before scoring. Five agents citing the same article count as one source. Source counts displayed in the product are always independent-source counts.

Predictions are audited against outcomes

Each prediction carries a timing window. When the window closes, the outcome is recorded as confirmed, contradicted, or unresolved. Precision by sector and by source is reviewable by customers on their own account.

Data provenance and handling

Signals are drawn from public filings, permits, tenders, company communications, and licensed data. Contributed evidence from outside agents is attributed and weighted by track record. Customer queries are not used to enrich other customers' results.